It is not often church decline
makes the national newspapers, but when a former Archbishop says the church is
on the brink of extinction I guess such news is too hard to resist, even for a
largely non-religious media [1]. What George Carey actually said was: “we are one generation away from extinction”,
meaning the Church of England [2]. Contrary to the Daily Mail headline he did
not use the word “brink” in the transcript of his speech. However in the light
of the data fitting I have done recently, where the Church of England’s
attendance data was compared with the Limited Enthusiasm church growth model, the
Mail’s headline is quite prophetic as the church is just on the extinction
threshold [3].
Rather than rely on the newspapers
I thought I would look at what George Carey actually said and see how it
squares with my church growth modelling.
In fact his talk was very insightful and the warnings of decline were
balanced with some very encouraging advice to the church. One of his opening
remarks sets the tone:
My time when
I was a Minister in Durham – now a long time ago – convinced me that churches
can grow, should grow and must grow. I firmly believe that the most dire
situation can be redeemed and the most impossible church can be turned around.
That is the sort of comment I wish I had come up with, but
then he is a former leader of the church so he does know more about this than
me! It summarises what I have been trying to show with my models that small
changes in effort in church life can change decline to growth, even revival
growth. This is what tipping point theory in any form of social diffusion is
about, small things making a big difference. The principle is analysed in the
academic world [4] and popularised as a best seller [5]. So there is always
hope, and especially so for the church where we have God’s promises to grow the
church and take the gospel to all nations, and His power to deliver it!
The former archbishop set out four challenges for the church:
1. Let us appreciate the church but let us re-imagine it.
He further
explains this by saying “What I am urging
is a return to basics where our expectation is for transformed lives” [2].
The church needs to recognise that the preached gospel changes lives.
Now I have
just come back from a sociology of religion conference in the USA. As ever I
get in trouble because my models use words like “unbeliever”, and “conversion”.
I get suggestions to change conversion to recruitment [6]. I agree if I were
modelling a political party, a pressure group or the local tennis club
“recruit” would be an ideal word. But Jesus does not recruit people, he changes
them, they are converted from the world to Him. The event as far as the church
is concerned is entirely different. New Christians do not just join a club; they
are changed people.
Yet often I
find churches prefer to think in non-spiritual terms, as if the spiritual side
of church embarrasses them. When the church thinks in the world’s terms it gets
the world’s results. Thus George Carey is spot on when he says the church needs
to re-imagine itself and think of itself in spiritual terms. He presents
various pieces of evidence to show that the world is crying for spiritual fulfillment,
and only the church can meet that, as only Christ can deliver it.
By the way
I will not be changing my “convert” variables to “recruit”. I will continue to
get in trouble!
2. Our task is to nurture fellow Christians but also to grow authentic disciples.
It is not
enough to encourage believers; they must also be discipled. That is, there is
growth in quality, not just quantity. He quotes the Saddleback Church approach
of four discipleship categories: membership, maturity, ministry, and mission.
The aim is to release all Christians into ministry and mission, and thus be
part of the process that builds the church and gathers new converts.
Like my
models there is recognition that there are different categories of Christians
and the aim is to progress people through. This is the basis of the Discipleship
System Dynamics Model developed by some church pastors and myself [7]. Once we
have recognized that there are such categories of Christians, strategies can be
developed to get people where they should be. The right resources, in the right
place at the right time. In
particular Christians should be able to reproduce themselves by making new
converts, the enthusiast category, even though it makes big demands on people. So
yet again the former archbishop was right, “If
the gospel is as we say, a matter of life and death, then we must make demands
… May I encourage you to make
discipleship one of the key targets of the coming year “ [2],
3. Let’s acknowledge the role of Christians in society but let us aim to be agents of social transformation.
Lord Carey
explains, “Every church should have one
or two relevant ministries to the world around [2]”. By this he means
ministry in society, i.e. outside the church. Of course the primary reason to
serve communities is for their benefit, in particularly the individuals in
need. But the very important side effect is that it widens the church’s
influence in society. The gospel reaches more people. In modeling terms we say
there is a larger susceptible pool of potential converts. The size of that pool
has a disproportionate effect on growth, and even a moderate increase can tip
church into growth, a growth that goes viral. Yet again George Carey’s
suggestions hit right at the heart of church growth.
The former
archbishop expands this concept to youth work, which triggers the remark picked
up by the Mail and the Telegraph. He says that without work among young people
the church is only one generation away from extinction. He is of course
correct, if there are no converts and young people brought up in the church are
lost, then the church dies out in one generation, about 70 years to be a bit
more precise. Of course there are always some children retained and even some
converts, so it actually last a few generations, but at numbers well below what
it is now.
It has been
a thesis of mine that for most denominations and congregations there have not
been sufficient conversions in the church since the middle of the 19th
century, the 1859 revival to be precise. Since then the church has largely grown
and survived by retaining sufficient of its own children, and a high birth rate
in society. Once the birth rate fell in the 20th century, and then
child retention in church dropped with the post-war rise in wealth, the lack of
conversions was exposed and the church has declined ever since. It could no
longer live on all the good work done in the 18th and first half of
the 19th centuries. So in practice it has been many generations from
extinction through a slow and drawn out death, but the reasons are exactly what
George Carey has said.
But Carey makes
a second observation under this heading, he says there is a lack of “energy” in
church, and contrasts it with the much higher energy among Muslims. In our [8] modeling,
that energy we call spiritual life and can be thought of as the common resource
generated when like-minded people work together effectively [9]. As Christians
we would also say there is a genuinely spiritual dimension to this concept,
coming from the Holy Spirit himself, but such shared non-physical resources
occur in all organisations, sometimes identified as social capital. If this energy increases then the
effect on growth is dramatic. Lord Carey is right; lack of energy is the source
of our problems, lack of the Holy Spirit! He suggests the need for “spiritual renewal and the touch of the Holy
Spirit” [2].
This
energy, or spiritual life, has a direct impact on the reproduction potential of
enthusiasts. In our modelling we find the reproduction potential among Muslims much
bigger than that of the Christian church, and well over the revival growth
threshold. This will not have to continue for much longer for there to be more
practicing Muslims than church attenders in England [10]. The lack of
reproduction in the church is a direct result of the lack of energy, or spiritual
life, in the church producing little community involvement and low conversion rates
of unbelievers. But the archbishop gives the solution, get involved with
society, replenish your spiritual energy, and sow for the future among the
youth.
4. The fourth area is to continue to encourage giving but to promote authentic stewardship.
George
Carey expands this by saying: “my long
experience of serving in the church has convinced me that lack of resources is
one of our biggest challenges and yet one of our greatest opportunities” [2].
He has now moved from spiritual resources to physical resources, money and time,
as determined by the level of commitment to Christ. Indeed he says this giving
is a “proclamation and demonstration of
belonging to Jesus”.[2]
Again he is
right in saying that such sacrificial commitment is key to growth. In the
church growth models the most effective Christians are called “enthusiasts”,
because they have the most commitment. They are the ones sold out for the cause
of Christ.
This level
of commitment can be contrasted with other forms of social diffusion. In our
modelling we have been trying to explain why there has been such a massive
swing of opinion in society in favour of same-sex relationships, when only a
generation ago most of society were opposed [11]. This change is faster than
generational, so older people must have been changing opinion during that time.
One factor has been the huge commitment of the gay rights activists, who have
been working to change opinion in various sectors of the community, especially
churches, through well-organized campaigns [12]. They have brought large corporate
companies on their side [13], and have been particularly successful in employing social media
[14].
To be fair gay
rights activists have only been seeking to change opinions, an easier option
than that of Christianity which seeks to change lives, hearts, souls, minds and
behaviour. Christianity is about
conversion, not recruitment to a cause. Nevertheless the commitment of gay
rights activists to their cause puts the commitment of many Christians to shame,
especially given that Christians are offering Christ and eternal life to people
who know they will die! Same-sex marriage was won because its activists and
supporters had higher commitment than that of their counterparts in support of
traditional marriage, most of whom were silent, asleep or too embarrassed to
engage [15]. Likewise the church in the UK is losing out because its members
are less committed than those of Islam, Humanism or even Paganism [16]. Even in the face of near extinction most
churches still seem unable to muster up more than an hour or so of commitment a
week from their members, and that concerns satisfying their own needs rather
than engaging in mission.
Conclusion
The former
archbishop, Lord Carey, has given a very insightful analysis of what is wrong
in the UK church, but more importantly how it can be put right: Spirituality,
discipleship, social transformation, energy and commitment. These are areas I
have tried to model and will endeavour to model better. May his words [2] be
read by many Christians, taken to heart and lead to sustainable church growth.
References & Notes
[1] Steve Doughty, Church
'is on the brink of extinction': Ex-Archbishop George Carey warns of
Christianity crisis, The Daily Mail, Tuesday 19th November 2013.
John Bingham, Christianity at risk of dying out in a
generation, warns Lord Carey, The
Daily Telegraph, Tuesday 19th November 2013,
[2] George Carey, Reimagining
the Church, Shropshire Light Conference. November 16th 2013.
[3] Church Growth Modelling, Decline of the Church of England:
[4] For a selection see the references at: http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/Diffrefs.html
[5] Malcolm Gladwell, The
Tipping Point, Abacus, 2002.
[6] See for example http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/Limitedmodel.html
[7] Discipleship model, http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/conversionist.html
[8] When I say “our” in connection with church growth
modelling I mean university students of mine who work on various forms of
church/religious growth, and social diffusion, as degree and research projects.
[9] J. Hayward and L. Howells. Church Growth and Spiritual Life. Future First. April
2011, published by Brierley
Consultancy.
When the Presence of God persists
Effective Enthusiasts Model
[10] Of
course this will not show up on census figures, as the people who identify
themselves as Christian are many times larger than those who call themselves
Muslim. This is because most people who call themselves Christian do not
participate in church! Participation rates are much higher in the heritage
Muslim community than in the heritage Christian community. Thus even if the growth trend continues
Islam will remain much smaller than Christianity for many generations. If Islam
progresses along the same path of nominality that the Christian church has done
then it will remain the minority.
[11] Civil
Partnerships Five Years On, Population Trends 145, pp172-202, Autumn 2011, Office
of national Statistics, UK. See figure 11, p 192.
Up to date figures for acceptance of same-sex relationships are
at Social Attitude Survey website, http://www.britsocat.com/
Daily Telegraph
British Religion in Numbers
[12]
Molly Ball, The Quiet
Gay Rights Revolution in America’s Churches, The Atlantic, 14th
August 2013.
The Reformation Project, http://www.reformationproject.org/
[13] E.g. Love is
Changing History, AT&T, http://loveischanginghistory.com/
[14] Claire Cain
Miller, Gay-Rights Advocates Use Web to
Organize Global Rally, The New York Times, 14th November 2008.
Noah Berlatsky, What the Gay Community Lost While It Was
Winning Gay Marriage, The Atlantic, 15th November 2013.
[15] With of course some obvious exceptions in the UK such
as the Evangelical Alliance, Care for the Family, the Christian Institute, the
leaders of the Catholic church and of course Lord Carey himself.
[16] There are again many exceptions. But generally,
averaged across the church, commitment and conversion, is low.
