Models and Reality
People sometimes ask me how I can model church growth, using
mathematics, given that it is God who grows the church. I can answer that in
two ways. Firstly we construct mathematical models of many things in the world,
e.g. in physics or economics. All
are open to a quantitative understanding, nevertheless are all are under God’s
control and made by Him. We can model the motion of the planets, but it is God
who is moving them. He is just doing it in a way we can understand – sometimes.
Church growth is no different, except we understand even less!
However, and more importantly, a model is only an attempt to
understand reality. It makes assumptions that make reality easier to
understand. But the model is not the reality. The two are very
different. We construct the model,
but God constructs and controls the
reality!
Cwmbran Outpouring
I must admit this was not the blog I intended to write.
However the events of the Cwmbran Outpouring are daily turning my thinking on
its head. As soon as I have one idea, another replaces it. Reality has
overtaken the model!
After my latest visit to Victory church something really
profound struck me. Not only is there a powerful presence of God at the
meetings, it is even more powerful in the days following. The presence of
Jesus persists. It is almost impossible to do anything without thinking
about Him, praying and worshipping. As if one want to do anything without Him
anyway! His “presence” persists and persists. This is the hallmark of an
authentic move of God and, as I will try and explain, the hallmark of revival.
To explain how the persistence of God’s presence is
connected to revival and church growth I am going to use a model. So this blog
is not about my experiences at Victory
Church this time, but it comes out of my
experience. There are now many accounts of the outpouring on the Internet so if
you are unfamiliar with this outpouring please chase up the links [1].
So what I wish to show is than when the presence of God
persists church growth is rapid and reaches high levels.
Church Growth
To the model. The central hypothesis is that growth in the
church is driven by enthusiasts. These are the Christians who pass the faith on
to unbelievers who then get converted. Enthusiasts are contagious Christians
who spread faith in Christ a bit like a disease is spread. Some, but not all,
of the new converts become contagious themselves, not just Christians but
enthusiasts. This is the limited enthusiasm model of church growth [2]. The
more enthusiasts, the more converts, thus the more enthusiasts – the feedback
loop of growth:
The R is for reinforcing as it accelerates growth.
Enthusiasts do not stay enthusiasts, not so much because
they lose their love for the Lord, but because they exhaust their network of
unbelievers, or even lose them as friends as they participate more in the
church:
The B is for balancing as it opposes growth. The key to
church growth is for enthusiasts to reproduce themselves faster than they are
lost.
Revival
There are many definitions of revival. At its heart revival
is when the presence of God is revealed in the souls of people. The word is usually
used when many people are so baptised in
the Spirit at the same time [3]. It is also used when a whole community is saturated with God [4]. However there is
always an individual experience of God, a touch from the King that changes
everything [5]. Indeed if we are being
revived, then it is revival [6]. When the presence of God is manifest in
the soul of a person such that their life is transformed, their spiritual life
renewed, then there is revival. So don’t ask, “is it revival?” But ask
yourself, “am I being revived?”
Revival Growth
The Biblical name for revival is an “Outpouring of the
Spirit”. The revival historian J. Edwin Orr, made the case that when man
cooperates with such outpourings, rapid church growth follows [7]. This is
“revival growth”. Revival is the spiritual work of God in man, the
manifestation of His presence in the soul; church growth is the result.
Now I must be clear here, we do not seek the presence of God to obtain church growth, we seek Him
because of who He is. The church growth is the result, a wonderful result all
the same. It is a double blessing: we enjoy Jesus at a personal level, and we
see people saved as the church grows.
You can have church growth without revival. Principles can
be applied that enhance growth, just like any organisation. This is OK as far
as it goes, but when you have principles
without the presence, you have a kingdom without a King [8].
You can have revival without church growth. But God revives
his people not just to bless them, but also to save the world. So the intention
is that church growth results from revival.
Revival growth is remarkably rapid as enthusiasts reproduce
themselves far more effectively than in “normal” times. They also make
enthusiasts out of existing believers, even old-timers, and they are very
effective in conversion, all the work of the Holy Spirit of course, in believer
and unbeliever alike. What I want to show is that the more the presence of God
persists in the believer, and His church, the more the church grows.
Presence of God and Church Growth
When the presence comes upon us it manifests itself in our
spiritual lives. Not only is our experience of Him heightened, but we pray
more, read the Bible and practice it more, we witness more, we talk about Him
more. Our whole life is affected and we can’t get enough of the things of God.
Anyone who has been at the Cwmbran Outpouring can testify to this.
But this affects the spiritual life of a church. Its
spiritual temperature goes up. In this there is another feedback loop: the more
enthusiasts, the more who gather, pray and seek God’s presence, the more his
presence [9] the more spiritual life in the people, the more life, the more
passion for the lost and thus the more effective they are in conversion giving
even more enthusiasts. The church and its people get spiritually hotter and
hotter. Pray -> presence -> life -> passion. At the end of the day, Passion
for the lost is the only key to church growth [10]. When the presence of
God persists ….. the passion for the lost persists and sees conversions.
This feedback loop is also reinforcing and looks like:
A research student of mine built this new feedback loop into
the limited enthusiasm church growth model, and the results are remarkable [11].
The limit to the church’s growth depends on a number of factors but one is how
long the spiritual life in a believer persists at a high level. The longer the
life persists the more the growth. When the presence of God persists ….. church growth is dramatic.
To some computer simulations of the model. The first graph
is of a church in revival growth where the spiritual life in enthusiasts fades
quickly. The church grows from 10% to 15% of the community over 3 years, growth
ceasing when the church’s life has gone:
Let the spiritual life persist in each enthusiast a little
longer and fade moderately, there is little difference. Growth stops at 17% of
the community:
Let the spiritual life persist a little longer again, so it
now fades slowly. The change is dramatic with the church going from 10% to 75%
of the community in the same time period:
The bulk of the community has been converted and the average spiritual life in the enthusiasts has shot through the roof about 18 months in. When the presence of God persists there is rapid growth and a church that is absolutely on fire. A dramatic tipping point [12] has occurred!
The bulk of the community has been converted and the average spiritual life in the enthusiasts has shot through the roof about 18 months in. When the presence of God persists there is rapid growth and a church that is absolutely on fire. A dramatic tipping point [12] has occurred!
A Few Things May Puzzle You
Why does the spiritual life always disappear? Answer: Because
over longer time periods we would need births and migration (left out of the
model). In practice there is always some level of spiritual life, and in rapid
revivals the peaks in that life end up coming in bursts. Remember activity has
not ceased, just the work of God in the soul that drives people into mission.
People may be doing many things, they may even feel spiritual, but it is not
channelled into conversion, a passion for the lost [10] and making new
enthusiasts.
Why should the presence of God fade in us? Answer: That is
the human condition. We may spend time seeking the presence of God, have a
wonderful experience and think “that is it”, and move on! Instead we should go
on seeking His presence: One thing I ask,
this is what I seek, that I may dwell in the house of the Lord all the days of
my life, to gaze upon his beauty, Psalm 27. So do not criticise people who keep
going back to centres of outpourings, like that at Cwmbran at present, this is
essential for spiritual health.
70% of the community in church seems massive. Answer: The
trouble here is the scope of the word “community”. For many churches their
community is much less than the size of their own town or neighbourhood. It is
God’s responsibility to pour out of His Spirit. It is our responsible to make
sure we contact as many people as possible so they may also share in what He is
doing – i.e. expand our community of influence.
Conclusion
When the presence of God persists …. we have revival,
enthusiasts, conversions and church growth. The presence of God persists in us when He, in his mercy,
shows his favour towards us. Dare we believe that he is showing his favour to
Wales again? It is so easy to be cynical and say “no its not revival, just
another set of meetings and hype”. And believe me the there are number of
“Jonahs” saying this on the Internet. But ask yourself, what do you want? Do
you want His presence? Do you want it to persist? Do you want a deep spiritual
life in Christ? Do you want a church on fire? Do you want to see people saved –
conversions? Then get to an outpouring meeting, whether Cwmbran, or elsewhere,
and let Him make you the enthusiast that He needs for His revival.
P.S. A bit of a more technical post than usual. If there are
things you did not follow, post up your questions and I will answer the best I
can.
The Welldigger http://daibach-welldigger.blogspot.co.uk/.
My previous blogs
[3] Martyn Lloyd-Jones , Joy Unspeakable, chapter 3, “I
would define a revival as a large number, a group of people, being baptised by
the Holy Spirit at the same time”. Kingsway Publications.
[4] “A community saturated by God” was Duncan Campbell’s
favourite description of revival. Quoted from Brian Edwards, Revival, chapter
1, Evangelical Press.
[5] The song “Just One Touch from the King” by Godfrey
Birtill has been the anthem of the Cwmbran Outpouring.
[6] Tweet by David Pike (@daipike).
“If we are being revived, then it is revival.” 9/6/13.
[7] J. Edwin Orr, The
Outpouring of the Spirit in Revival and Awakening and its Issue in Church
Growth, British Church Growth Association, available at Church Growth
Modelling, by permission.
[8] Tweet by MrClydeT (@MrClydeT) (a pastor at Victory Church
Cwmbran. “When you have principles without the presence, you have a
kingdom without a king!” 9/6/13.
[9] Fear not we do not attempt to model the presence of God!
We take the link directly from enthusiasts to spiritual life. How could one
measure his presence? Having said that a former student of mine has been at the
meetings 2-3 days a week since the start. When I asked her what was different
about these meetings, she said they were taking the presence of God to a whole
new level. So there is a sense it can be “measured” not by numbers but by
comparison to past experiences.
[10] Tweet by Richard Taylor (@swifttaylor) founding pastor of Victory
Church Cwmbran. “Passion for the lost is the
only key to growth. Without it you have no-one to disciple”.15/6/13. https://twitter.com/swifttaylor/status/346006002832912384
[11] J. Hayward and L. Howells. Church Growth and
Spiritual Life. Future
First. April 2011, published by Brierley
Consultancy
[12] In mathematics this is called a bifurcation (See Blog
by Tom Fiddaman). The next comments are for mathematicians only! Epidemic
models are rich with bifurcations. Most have a forward (transcritical)
bifurcation between the disease-free state and endemic state. In church growth
terms it means that for different parameter values churches either survive or
go extinct. It does not sound so profound when put that way! However once other
elements are added the models also exhibit backward bifurcation where more than
one stable endemic state can exist (subcritical) and the high states can
suddenly disappear or appear (supercritical). This is a feature of the way
people interact in groups, common in many epidemic models. It is a phenomenon
similar to this that happens in the church growth model with spiritual life, a
small change in the persistence of that life in the believers and a high value
of church “appears” and rapid growth results towards it. In system dynamics
terms an extra reinforcing loop kicks in that accelerates growth. In spiritual
terms the presence of God is deep, amazing and persists. Heaven on Earth!
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